The Rolled Up Newspaper

Handling the Truth

2012-01-29T19:26:00.003-05:00

One of the easier things to understand in the Messenger of Doom business is that most people won't want to listen. Most people have enough problems with things as they are that they don't need to worry about what's coming in 10 or 20 years. Most of the rest figure there's nothing they can do now that will pay off in a measurable future. Even most Jim Kunstler fans get their weekly dose of impending collapse then go back to regular life.

Which covers normal people. The 27 percenters, who worship in the Cult of the Hand, hoping to be trickled on if they repeat the mantra? Them, I have no patience for. Soon enough, the increasingly violent insanity of the True Believers will split them from the profiteer, but that's another story.

So what am I doing about the near certainty that resource depletion will make a mockery of The American Way of Life in the near future? We've already gone through 10years of very little growth, declining stock values, and stagnating or worse incomes for almost everyone. And what have I done? Near squat. Minor conservation & aggressive saving indistinguishable from natural miserliness.

So, shouldn't there be some Big Steps towards preserving the future?

Oddly enough, this intersects with something I've been doing a lot of lately, financial planning. It's fairly easy to project how people will do under moderate economic assumptions. Your assets grow at 6%, prices rise 3%, you can spend $x per year and not expect to die broke.

So what's the chance your retirement village will be overrrun by a desperate horde? And what can you do to prevent it?

I'm seriously considering whether root cellars & ammo should become part of the planning process. Fortunately, I work in a nut friendly environment.

In the meantime, might as well get off the computer, hug somebody, read a book, and help somebody else practice for a math competition next weekend.

Overshoot

2012-01-27T18:49:00.002-05:00

A lot of stuff in the last few days has pointed back towards the main (public) issue that has concerned me for the last 40 years or so.

We have 7,000,000,000 people on a world that isn't getting any bigger, degrading the resources that support us at a rate that pretty much guarantees increasing trouble, starting about now and just getting worse for the next 50 years.

Is that clear enough?

Anyhow, the specific items:

The Club of Rome decided not to do a 40 year update to Limits to Growth because it's too late to do anything to stop it.

The NYT says mackerel stocks - yes, that overly fast, not so tasty fish, are down 90% in 10 years.

A pinhead who pretends to have read Limits to Growth published a Yergenite pile of rubbish & got his hat handed to him. Oil is stuck at $100 as a century of increasing driving has crunched to a halt. The rich countries of the world are preaching utter economic rubbish - expansionary austerity. Do they really believe this nonsense? How could they? It fails basic arithmetic to think that you can increase employment through mass firings. So what's up?

If we did have growth, with oil supply flat since 2005, there is nothing to fuel it. We'd simply have another oil price spike & another recession.

(Overshoot is the condition where we're living off land, water, fertilizer & other basic resources at a level far above their replacement, and headed for a crash)

Make of this what you will. If you have some investible assets, put them into something real. If you only have $100: It's Friday night. Get out & have some fun, leave the internet to tired old cranks.

Losing it

2012-01-25T18:41:00.002-05:00

While the Shelley Long/Tom Cruise movie was a classic, it's not the subject of this post. Pity, since the 1980s frankness about the desperate need of teenage boys to get intp circulation in the face of an antiseptic society that rejected their nature holds a lot of relevance today, in the face of a society that not only rejects their nature but refuses to talk about it. So maybe that will be the subject of the next post. Or not, since it would require talking to a teenage boy, which would probably make me a Level 2 sex offender just for saying Hello. So forget that.

This is about work.

Long, long, ago, in a place about 3 blocks from where I work now, I was young and confident. Always willing to start something. Now, not so much. It takes a lot to get old DP on the warpath.

All year, I've been angling to get 200 or so complete accountings from our custodian. Now that they should be ready, I go off into the weeds and find - Nothing! And it's our fault. After spending 2 days chasing down the problems, I found an utter, complete, total, redundant failure to train, supervise or give a shit about maintaining accurate records of expenditures.

Trouble is, the person directly responsible for this failure is somebody I like. And the ultimate responsibility is due to a total void. Almost enough to get the old fires burning, to move in, take control, etc.

Almost. We all know how that would end.

Just wondering...

2012-01-23T19:24:00.002-05:00

While I'm totally at sea about what's happening at home, at work & in the world, how is Tom Waits doing?

Get offa my lawn?

2012-01-21T19:24:00.003-05:00

I've been going to this restaurant for 20 years. Let's call it the "John Harvard's Brewhouse". I've rolled through the changes - they took away the salmon salad, raised prices, improved the beer. But some things have stayed steady : always the Pale Ale, stained glass, TVs, free bread plates.

Go in this evening, everything looks fine. We even get a booth with a nice view of a TV, FSU vs Duke.

First sniff of trouble is the menu. Nearly 6, but there's a page of lunch items, and no beer page. Still, all the usual dishes. 2nd trouble : the only 2 beers they have are both heavy.

Yadda, yadda - you don't need the details. In the end, my meal is spoiled by

1) The beer wasn't very good and a pitcher cost $20, which price wasn't on the menu
2) The fish & chips were a tiny portion
3) The ribs on the menu were a half rack for $14.99. The bill was $19.99, since we seem to have had the wrong menu - apparently the 4 mediocre ribs I got were a whole rack.
4) The bread never arrived. When we finally managed to ask, we were told it was now a $3 extra (not shown on the menu or mentioned)

At the end, I did get the waitress to admit there was new management. She offered to bring them over. I fled.

All pretty trivial, right? But having aggravated my groin injury jumping a slushpuddle, facing a painful 2k shuffle home, does being pissed make me a grumpy old coot?

Nah. I was just as annoying 30 years ago.

Fakelore Rulez!

2012-01-18T19:23:00.002-05:00

Danny Boy is, of course, not a Real Irish song.

I no longer care.

The Greatest Postage Stamps Ever

2012-01-17T19:54:00.004-05:00

This sucker has it all. That it came out right at the start of Colony Collapse disorder & White Nose Fungus makes it sad. Still pretty, but we are so screwed.

A serious post

2012-01-15T10:01:00.001-05:00

on a Sunday? fuhgeddaboutit.

Turtles all the way down

2012-01-14T08:44:00.002-05:00

Watching Willard the Undead clanking about the country trying to fill the emptiness of his soul by satisfying ambition is going to get even more painful in the next 10 months, so, on this reasonably nice Saturday morning - time to wake up small one.

I'm shutting down.

Clarifying the prior post

2012-01-08T08:52:00.003-05:00

& trying to move some of the drop down from in front of the picture

Knowing my place on the internet

2012-01-06T12:44:00.003-05:00

In case anyone wandering by here wonders why there is so little content - that's not what I do. Short pieces, either correcting a fact or making a joke, work better as responses to somebody else's well wrought (or better yet, inept) major opus.

New Years Assessment

2012-01-01T09:03:00.004-05:00

Oil 98.83 WTI - $107.38 Brent
NG - $2.989 (Never expected to see that!)
Wheat-$652.6
Dow -12,150

Which I'm putting here because it's a nice, quiet untravelled place.
Goals for this blog, this year: 20 posts, 1000 views, 1 comment.

Goal in real life : get through the move without landing in the ER.

My Career as a Street Performer

2011-10-16T09:54:00.003-04:00

Started & ended last night. Passing by the pit after dinner we paused to watch a chap in a green kilt with a unicycle and juggling act. The little pup spotted some of her friends, so we were stuck.

Then I got drafted as backup dancer/bagpipe holder.

Fortunately, the other 2 draftees were capable of holding the unicycle.

10-11-11

2011-10-11T15:43:00.001-04:00

42 as of yesterday.

Planning on 50 by Christmas.

A blustery day

2011-08-28T19:03:00.002-04:00

They warned us not to go outside, but the wind wasn't enough to stop a game of MOOSE*.

*Horse, but more fun to spell.

Would you believe a post a month?

2011-03-06T16:57:00.004-05:00

I plead tax season.

Mostly I'm scared to post about oil. Either I post something that will look foolish in a month, or something useless.

Anyhow, to be useful:

NEW or EXTENDED for 2011

The American Opportunity Tax Credit for tuition expenses was extended for 2011 with a credit of up to $2,500.

Employees will pay only 4.2% payroll taxes for 2011, while self-employed individuals will pay only 10.4% on income up to $106,800.

The Child Tax Credit of $1,000 per child has been extended for 2011 for married individuals earning less than $110,000 and for head-of-household filers earning less

So go somewhere exciting

A Post a Day

2011-02-08T19:12:00.002-05:00

And maybe I'll be able to beat a 10-year old's MAP scores -
http://pickens.it.schoolfusion.us/modules/groups/homepagefiles/cms/374410/File/MAP/Norms2008.pdf?sessionid=14d1e9266e4482d198ebc39c6e6bc9c3

They really make it hard to find what these things mean.

Anyhow, it was a nice quiet day in the fall of civilization.

Since I have been linked

2011-02-07T19:15:00.004-05:00

& may now be getting as many as 2 hits a week, might as well finish the story of ANWR oil.

Y'all remember how this was one of the big clubs against treehuggers? All this oil that could save us? And they were keeping it off the market?

Latest estimate is that it could supply all the US oil needs for about 45 days.

Which is to say, we had a temp at work a few months ago. Somebody ran into her socially yesterday. Turns out that in 2 weeks of being ignored while making copies & suchlike, the woman had learned pretty much all there is to know about our operation.

In case you were wondering.

The Hunting of the Snark: Honeymoon Hints

2010-01-28T14:31:00.000-05:00

The Hunting of the Snark: Honeymoon Hints

(Blogger is getting weird. I have no idea where/if this will post)

I liked in the comments where she said no to the Carribean because it's June & hurricane season.

How can Megan be so clueless on so many subjects?

EIA weekly, 4/17/09

2009-04-22T13:45:00.001-04:00

Crude oil in storage is up to 370 million barrels. US consumption of oil is down over 10%, to just over 18 million barrels a day.

Aint got no more room. And 10,000,000 additional barrels a week need someplace to sit.

So this is still here

2009-04-18T13:51:00.003-04:00

And I haven't had anything to say for almost 2 years.

Still don't. So I'll look back at the oeuvre.

I was wrong on natural gas- we were just about to ramp up into a new era of increasing production, & a major price crash. Looks like that era is going to end fairly quickly, because the increase was built on really expensive production.

I was right about the market about to crash. Big woop.

Tax seasons haven't gotten any better. Custodians just don't give a shit anymore.

Looks like 2006, or maybe 2007, was the peak for holiday traffic. 2006 was the last time we took a long car trip. Might take another in 2012.

I think I'll turn this into a cooking blog. Dinner today is a chicken & chickpea stew that'll take at least 2 hours. It also requires a lot of wine, a small amount of which may end up in the food.

Rock of Love. cold sober

2007-09-30T19:49:00.000-04:00

I let the house go dry, forgetting that tonight is the big finale.

Stupid, stupid, stupid.

Assessment time

2007-09-12T20:29:00.000-04:00

The start of second grade for the little one is proving to be a very weird time. The class is getting lots of tests, & there's a plan to install some sort of math rich environment.

The weirdness is that her teacher has already decided that shes about 2 years ahead, and is haing her do multiplication & division instead of the addition & subtraction on the papers. It makes for for very weird homework.

At least there's lots of reading time. Harry Potter, what else?

No learning curve

2007-09-09T19:54:00.000-04:00

So when my ankle was feeling better we went to Salisbury Beach. It's September, so I can't burn, right?

Wrong, but that was the minor issue. The big one was that I shouldn't be getting into competitive hole digging. Should be able to stand up stright in 2 or 3 days.

Today's PSA: Browns on 286 has gone downhill. Get your clams elsewhwere.

Still, yesterday was a fine day at the beach.

Move-in day

2007-09-01T19:01:00.000-04:00

This is the day every small truck & van in the world converges on Boston. Best ever! The little one & I spent all morning tooling around on bikes. We hit 4 yard sales & the school garden. Nothing but smiles. Our loot was OK - tomatoes, hot peppers, parsley, 750 pc puzzle, paper doilies, a bowl, & a really bad Ray Charles cd.

Back to growling in a few days.

First the embarrassment

2007-08-29T20:37:00.000-04:00

Then the pain then the nuisance. I'm way too damn old to be trotting thorugh subway stations, but cant help it, so when I made a loud show falling on the stairs, there was nothing to do but get up & show the stiff upper lip.

Looks like the ankle will be messed up for a while. No serious damage.

Its my birthday, dammit

2007-07-26T19:54:00.001-04:00

Suggest a topic or something

Parental potlatch

2007-06-17T20:49:00.001-04:00

Local customs involve gifts for teachers, extavagant birthday parties, etc.

Every time we think we're catching up with the way things are done, somebody comes up with a new level of generous. This season the soccer team was given a post season feast by the back up coach, and flowers by the regular coach.

Its getting to be impossible to say anything nasty about people.

The library booksale is today!

2007-06-09T09:22:00.000-04:00

& yes, I'm really excited. Hope to see Arlene & Max there.

Open Studios

2007-05-06T10:46:00.000-04:00

There are 100 stops on the Somerville Open studios tour this weekend. I only did 5 yesterday, plus a yard sale. Didn't get any art, but did manage 7 beanie babies & a Groovy Girl for $2, total. The little one will be at a birthday party most of the afternoon, so I can run through about 40 - go in, say Hi, eat a cracker, leave.

40 crackers - I won't need dinner. We're most likely going to Mikes or whatever they call the Hometown though, so maybe not.

They're dying, I'm working

2007-05-03T19:50:00.000-04:00

This is about the most depressing post-tax season ever. Instead of pushing out all the returns that came in at the last minute & went on extension, its all estate, all the time.

On the positive side, I'm healthier than ever. When I was 12, I got horrible headaches, a lot. Over the years, I learned the triggers, avoided them and they stopped completely.

For any teenagers reading - some helpful health advice:

Sleep regular hours, but not too much.
Don't get too much sun. Sun & beer don't mix.

Don't wait for nocturnal emissions.

I'm just full of PSAs.

& it's over

2007-04-14T20:54:00.000-04:00

For 6 weeks I havent even read this thing. Gotta restart now to get in the new subway trash paper. Soooooo.....

Everythings falling apart now, idnit? The economy, the administration, Iraq - all according to plan.

Or didn't you realize Blofeld was running things?

Tax season

2007-03-04T13:39:00.000-05:00

Our beloved custodian bank decided to fuck us over good this year. Into March, & we still don't have everything we need. Going to have to extend almost everyone.

Could be worse. Could be on the investment side, with the long expected meltdown just cracking the ice.

The Middlesex Fells

2007-02-04T13:14:00.000-05:00

A couple miles from me there's a big woods full of rocks & a couple of ponds. Went there yesterday & the ice from a storm had coated the shrubs & weeds.

In the past year there we've climbed rocks, picked bluberries & mushrooms, skated, been to the zoo, hiked all over, slid on mud road, & hauled blocks of ice.
When I was a kid we had relatives who owned farms. None of those left.

After things collapse, there'll be more space, but whoevers left will be too cold, tired & hungry to enjoy it.

Name that tune

2007-02-03T10:05:00.000-05:00

Toasted oats & shredded wheat,
I have covered you in milk
for you'll soon belong in me,
your box will be back on the shelf.

January 26 - 4 degrees

2007-01-26T19:52:00.000-05:00

I haven't posted for a lot of reasons, most of which are some form of nothing to say.

January 7 - 69 degress

2007-01-06T20:26:00.000-05:00

I just want it to be recorded that I got some sun.

Cheap lunch out

2006-12-28T16:37:00.000-05:00

Why are foods that can be called breakfast so cheap? An egg, bacon, cheese bagel is barely more than my cholesterol count.

The Iraq Survey Group

2006-12-28T16:33:00.000-05:00

From the moment I read the first recommendation from these clowns, solemnly telling Iraq how to run its affairs, it seemed strangely - well, stupid is the best word. (Arrogant & clueless would also be good)

Today we learn that their experts were passing around and chatting about - year old spam e-mails. http://p200.ezboard.com/fnfisgetoutthevotefrm3.showMessage?topicID=4941.topic

Oy!

Two guys walked into a bar to get warm

2006-12-26T11:59:00.000-05:00

US Natural gas production is still declining from its 2001 secondary peak.
This year's lack of hurricanes might bring it in above 2005.

use back button to return to prior data -->
U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production (MMcf)
(By year)
1930's
1,903,771
1,659,614
1,541,982
1,548,393
1,763,606
1,913,475
2,164,413
2,403,273
2,284,863
2,464,637
1940's
2,654,293
2,778,061
3,026,694
3,393,743
3,672,156
3,882,066
3,987,488
4,393,439
4,938,512
5,195,404
1950's
6,022,198
7,164,959
7,694,299
8,056,848
8,388,198
9,028,665
9,663,910
10,246,622
10,572,208
11,547,658
1960's
12,228,148
12,661,579
13,253,006
14,076,412
14,824,027
15,286,280
16,467,320
17,386,791
18,494,523
19,831,680
1970's
21,014,229
21,609,885
21,623,705
21,730,998
20,713,032
19,236,379
19,098,352
19,162,900
19,121,903
19,663,415
1980's
19,403,119
19,181,261
17,820,063
16,094,461
17,466,472
16,453,857
16,059,030
16,620,581
17,102,621
17,310,645
1990's
17,809,674
17,697,802
17,839,903
18,095,460
18,821,025
18,598,679
18,854,063
18,902,389
19,023,564
18,832,232
2000's
19,181,980
19,616,311
18,927,788
19,098,544
18,757,477
18,243,554

Tax extenders for Christmas

2006-12-21T09:56:00.000-05:00

Lots of minor tax stuff got passed after the forms went to the printers. Not a big issue - its all breaks & goodies.

The most interesting is a refundable to $5000 AMT credit for people who paid tax when they exercised Incentive Stock Options way back when, & haven't been able to get it back when the stocks tanked. Also the most complicated - I may have it figured out by February.

F'real Christmas, I'm looking for about half a dozen stocking stuffers to round out the pile for the little one. Idears?

C'mon, they say the average blog gets one reader. Granted, this one is below average....

The sillies struck, relentlessly

2006-12-06T11:34:00.000-05:00

Who could have imagined that a bunch of elementary school kids in an afternoon chess program to keep them away from their parents would lose focus?

We're having a 4 round swiss the next 2 weeks to try & at least keep them in the room.

So I'm assistant chess coach....

2006-11-22T12:02:00.000-05:00

For the little pup & 15 3rd-5th graders. They're better behaved than I expected, but they have no idea how to checkmate. One kid will be left with a naked king & the other one, with half their pieces left, will just wander around.

Time to channel Fred Reinfeld.

Is this a crappy blog or what?

2006-09-23T20:50:00.000-04:00

I only created it to make fun of Sara. There may be content someday. Don't hold your breath.

Labor Day Traffic

2006-09-01T14:18:00.000-04:00

For what its worth, this year should be the worst ever. Next year, a bit less.

That's not good news, but if you need an excuse to stay home this year, use it.

IRC Sec 104(a) - Non-physical damages

2006-08-30T13:06:00.000-04:00

A court has ruled that the provision taxing compensatory awards for damages other than personal physical injury is unconstitutional. They say its not income, so it can't be taxed.

File your claims for refund soon, kiddies. This ends the public service portion of this blog.

Nevermore.

Well, hardly ever.

2006-08-29T10:15:00.000-04:00

Imagine champagne & stuff. I have to get to work, but needed to put this up so the robots could find me.